Rules

Everything you need to know about PMX prediction markets.

Introduction

What is PMX

PMX is a prediction market protocol on Solana. Create markets around real-world events, trade YES/NO outcome tokens, and claim payouts when the outcome is decided — all on-chain, no intermediaries.

Outcome tokens are standard SPL tokens. Market resolution is handled by UMA's decentralized oracle.

How It Works

1
Create

Define a yes/no question and a resolution date

2
Trade

Buy and sell outcome tokens — prices shift with demand

3
Resolve

UMA's oracle determines the correct outcome

4
Claim

Winners redeem tokens for payouts

Key Properties

Non-custodial
Your keys, your tokens
Transparent
Every trade verifiable on-chain
Oracle-secured
UMA resolves outcomes
Solvent by design
Payouts always covered
Jump in
Scroll down to learn about , or read about .

Markets

Creating and trading prediction markets on PMX.

Creating a Market

Anyone can create a market. You need a Solana wallet and enough funds for the creation fee, which seeds the initial liquidity pool.

Question Rules

  • Clear — Unambiguous, no room for interpretation
  • Objective — Verifiable facts, not opinions
  • Time-bound — Specific date or deadline
Good
"Will BTC hit $150k by Dec 31, 2025?"
Bad
"Will Bitcoin do well next year?"

Initial Liquidity

The creation fee is split 50/50 to seed the YES and NO pools. This sets the starting price at 50% for both sides. As people trade, prices shift.

Example: $1,000 creation fee
YES pool$500
NO pool$500
Starting odds
50%/50%

Trading

Buy outcome tokens if you think an event will happen (YES) or won't (NO). Sell anytime before resolution to lock in profit or cut losses.

  1. Connect wallet — Any Solana wallet
  2. Pick a market and choose YES or NO
  3. Enter amount — Review your fill price and potential payout
  4. Confirm — Tokens appear in your wallet instantly

Outcome Tokens

YES Tokens

Pay out if the event occurs. Worthless if it doesn't.

NO Tokens

Pay out if the event does not occur. Worthless if it does.

Tokens are standard SPL — transferable to any Solana wallet, tradeable on any DEX, composable with DeFi protocols.

Tip
Always check the quote preview before confirming. It shows your exact fill price, slippage, and potential payout.

Pricing

How PMX prices trades and keeps the pool solvent.

Base Pricing

Prices come from the ratio of liquidity in each pool. If there's more money behind YES than NO, YES is more expensive (= higher implied probability).

Price = Side Liquidity / Total Liquidity

YES + NO prices always sum to 100%

YES pool
$6,000
NO pool
$4,000
YES price
60%

Every trade shifts the ratio, so bigger trades move the price more. This is slippage — a natural property of pool-based markets.

Fill Price

When you buy, your fill price is the post-trade odds plus a small 1% spread fee. This means you always pay slightly above the current market price — the difference is the cost of your price impact.

Pre-trade YES odds60%
You buy $1,000 of YES...
Post-trade odds~64%
Your fill price~65% (64% + 1% spread)

For sells, the fill price is the post-trade odds minus the spread.

Solvency Protection

PMX guarantees that the pool always has enough money to pay every winner. Here's the simple version:

The pool tracks a "surplus" — the total USDC in the pool minus what's already owed to existing token holders.

Total pool
$10,000
Owed to holders
$7,000
Surplus
$3,000

When the surplus is large, prices behave normally. When the surplus is smaller, the system adjusts:

For Buys

If a buy would consume too much surplus, the fill price automatically increases. In extreme cases the fill price can exceed 100%, meaning the buyer is guaranteed to lose money. This naturally deters over-buying on one side.

For Sells

If a sell would drain USDC that the opposite side needs for payouts, the fill price automatically decreases. In extreme cases the fill price drops to zero. This prevents one side's sellers from bankrupting the other side.

How it feels in practice
Surplus
Buying
Selling
Healthy
Normal pricing
Normal pricing
Moderate
Slightly worse
Slightly worse
Low
Much worse price
Much worse price
Critical
Guaranteed loss
Near-zero payout

What This Means for You

  • Small trades — Minimal impact, near-market fill prices
  • Large trades — More slippage, but the pool stays solvent
  • Extreme one-sided markets — Pricing becomes punitive to protect the pool
  • Payouts are always covered — The math ensures the pool can always pay winners
Bottom line
You don't need to think about solvency — PMX handles it automatically. Just check your quote preview to see your exact fill price before trading.

Settlement

How markets resolve and how you get paid.

Resolution

When a market reaches its resolution date, trading stops permanently. The outcome is then determined by UMA, a decentralized oracle that uses economic incentives to guarantee honest reporting.

1
Trading stops

No more buying or selling

2
Oracle proposes outcome

A proposer asserts YES or NO and posts a bond

3
Challenge window

Anyone can dispute — if disputed, UMA token holders vote

4
Result finalized

Winning outcome recorded immutably on-chain

Resolution typically completes within hours. Disputed outcomes may take longer but the economic security model ensures honest resolution.

Claiming Payouts

After resolution, winning token holders redeem directly through PMX. No approval needed — claims are enforced by smart contracts.

  1. Go to Portfolio — Claimable earnings appear automatically
  2. Click Claim — Confirm the transaction in your wallet
  3. Receive payout — Funds transfer instantly

You won

Each token redeems at par value

You lost

Tokens have zero redemption value

Guarantees

  • Permissionless — No approval from PMX or anyone
  • Always solvent — Pool math ensures payouts are covered
  • No expiry — Claim anytime after resolution
  • Instant — Funds transfer in the same transaction
Need help?
Make sure you're connected with the wallet that holds your tokens and have a small amount of SOL for transaction fees.

PMX — Prediction markets on Solana